Midyear Outlook 2019: What Really Matters in the Markets

At the halfway point of 2019, the U.S. economy has held steady, supported by the fiscal stimulus we have highlighted for two years, and corporate profits continue to grow. At the same time, trade tensions are increasingly weighing on the economic outlook, while...

Portfolio Compass | June 19, 2019

COMPASS CHANGES Bank loans view lowered from Neutral to Negative/Neutral Industrial metals view lowered from Neutral to Negative/Neutral INVESTMENT TAKEAWAYS We maintain our year-end 2019 fair value target for the S&P 500 Index of 3,000. Despite a slight...

Stocks and Fed Rate Cuts | Weekly Market Commentary | June 17, 2019

KEY TAKEAWAYS Stocks have benefited recently from increasing hopes of a Fed rate cut, although investors probably won’t get one this week. Stocks’ historical performance after initial Fed rate cuts has been mostly positive, but it has been greatly dependent on the...

Setting The Stage | Weekly Economic Commentary | June 17, 2019

KEY TAKEAWAYS The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its next policy decision June 19. We think a language change is more likely than a policy change at this meeting. Economic fundamentals are still sound, but the Fed must address plans to mitigate trade risk....

Market Insight Monthly | May 2019

ECONOMY: SIGNS OF ECONOMIC RESILIENCE IN MAY U.S. economic data improved in May on balance, even as investors battled a resurgence in U.S.-China trade tensions. Leading indicators signaled low odds of a recession in the coming year. The Conference Board’s Leading...