Outlook

Bulls Are on Trial | Weekly Market Commentary | May 12, 2025
Earnings continued to come in better-than feared, but “tariff uncertainty” continued to get flagged on most conference calls. The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates unchanged and stuck to its patient approach with monetary policy, despite notable downgrades to economic growth estimates and rising recession probabilities since their last meeting.

Finding Value Among the Muni Market Malaise | Weekly Market Commentary | May 5, 2025
The municipal bond market faced significant volatility in April, driven by spillovers from a turbulent Treasury market. Treasury yields were pressured higher by rising inflation expectations; the Federal Reserve’s cautious policy stance, reduced foreign demand; hedge fund deleveraging, portfolio shifts toward cash, and structural illiquidity.

Softer Tone on China Is Encouraging, but Some Caution Still Advised | Weekly Market Commentary | April 28, 2025
The softer tone toward China from the White House, President Trump’s pledge not to fire Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome (Jay) Powell, and renewed optimism about Fed rate cuts all helped drive a strong market rebound last week.

Revising Our S&P 500 Target Amid a Storm of Uncertainty | Weekly Market Commentary | April 21, 2025
With little visibility into where tariff rates shake out and the effects on earnings, it’s hard to have much conviction in a year-end S&P 500 target. Given the high degree of uncertainty, we use scenarios and a wider range to get more comfortable with our target and to increase our odds of accuracy (though we recognize these targets are more art than science).

Decent Chance Stock Market Bottom Is in but Far From Certain | Weekly Market Commentary | April 14, 2025
This week was one of the most volatile weeks in the history of the stock market. That excludes the historic two-day decline on Thursday and Friday the week before (April 3–4). The S&P 500 dropped 1.6% on Tuesday, April 8, surged 9.5% on Wednesday, April 9 (the third biggest up day since 1950), fell 3.5% on Thursday, April 10, and jumped 1.8% on Friday, April 11. The S&P 500 ended up nearly 6% for the week.